TLDR
- Ki Young Ju, the head of CryptoQuant, envisions a period of 6 to 12 months where Bitcoin's value might either stagnate or decline.
- The reduction in market liquidity coupled with static capital inflow suggests that the bullish phase might be concluding.
- Critical indicators such as the MVRV Ratio Z-score hint at potential downturns, with possibilities of Bitcoin revisiting the $63,000 level.
- Over the past month, Bitcoin has shed 15% of its value, nullifying the gains achieved post-election.
- Analysts remain split with a faction still forecasting that Bitcoin might set new record highs by mid-2025.
According to insights from Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant's CEO, the Bitcoin bull phase seems to be winding down. His message on X, dated March 17, 2025, warned investors of a potential 6 to 12-month stretch marked by sluggish or downward price movement.
#Bitcoin The bullish phase appears to have concluded, with predictions of a 6–12 month period of unstable or declining prices. pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
Ju attributes his negative forecast to a decrease in liquidity. He communicated through Telegram to CoinDesk that 'new liquidity is crucial as the on-chain realized cap has ceased growing, indicating a lack of new capital.'
This stance from Ju marks a change from earlier in the month. On March 4, he had conveyed that whilst the bull market might decelerate, its foundations remain sound, supported by neutral readings from main indicators.
#Bitcoin The pace of the market likely will remain sluggish unless there's an improvement in U.S. market sentiment.
Currently, there's an absence of significant on-chain activities, and primary indicators remain neutral, suggesting that the bull market still holds. The fundamentals look robust, given the increase in operational mining rigs.
If the cycle ends… https://t.co/fSWl26d0gx pic.twitter.com/byWdweZhSQ
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 4, 2025
A new analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin might climb back to $63,000. The study points out bearish tendencies in key valuation metrics like the MVRV Ratio Z-score, which measures the market value against its realized value.
When the MVRV Z-score sinks below its 365-day moving average, it generally indicates a weakening price trend for Bitcoin, a pattern that historically has led to major corrections or started bearish phases.
CryptoQuant analysts There's discussion regarding the crucial support band between $75,000 and $78,000. Factors like dwindling demand and diminishing cumulative purchases by U.S. whales heighten the risk of a downturn.
These factors could exert additional downward pressure, augmenting the risk of a more pronounced price correction as the months pass.
The Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock (IBIT) has recorded three continuous weeks of outflows. This movement suggests that the initial institutional enthusiasm might be waning.
Ju observed that 'even when trading volumes approached $100,000,' Bitcoin’s the price barely shifted. He added, 'without new liquidity countering heavy sell-offs, it’s a worrying sign.'
Bitcoin’s value has decreased by 15% over the previous month as per CoinDesk Indices, wiping out the progress made after the U.S. presidential election.
Bettors at Polymarket estimate a 51% likelihood of Bitcoin finishing the week in the $81,000-$87,000 range. Additionally, there's a 31% probability that it will decrease to $75,000 by month's end.
Concerns are rising among market observers that economic instability combined with international tensions might amplify the bearish trend. LMAX Group's Joel Kruger and Coinbase Institutional's David Duong have highlighted these risks to CoinDesk.
However, not all experts adopt this pessimistic view. Pav Hundal, the lead analyst at Swyftx, reassured Cointelegraph that 'there's no need to be alarmed.'
While investors have been rattled by President Donald Trump's tariff strategies, Hundal noted, 'all data points to a global economy moving in a positive direction.'
Some experts maintain a positive outlook influenced by broader economic factors. Crypto analyst Seth noted that global M2 money supply has reached new peaks, potentially setting the stage for another upward surge for Bitcoin.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
In August 2024, I signaled an upcoming rise after observing the Global Money Supply was scaling to unprecedented heights.I’m reporting that the Global Money Supply has once again reached record levels. We are on the verge of witnessing #Bitcoin rally again.
This time is not different.
Not financial advice.
Always DYOR! https://t.co/uTM0KZaTju pic.twitter.com/a07babxVzZ— Seth (@seth_fin) March 17, 2025
Dave Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, suggests Bitcoin a possibility of reaching new peaks by late April if historical patterns persist. 'Expect Bitcoin to touch fresh highs within a month if its BETA correlation with the money supply remains intact,' stated Weisberger on X.
Cory Klippsten, the CEO of Swan Bitcoin, mentioned recently that there's a greater than 50% likelihood of seeing record highs before June concludes this year. The current record peak for Bitcoin stands at $109,000 as of January 20, 2025.
At the moment this was documented, Bitcoin is valued at about $83,030, based on existing market data.
