TLDR
- Currently, Bitcoin is teetering around the $82,000 range, risking a fall past the $80,000 line.
- Tariff threats of 25% on Russian oil are made by Trump amidst issues with ceasefire negotiations.
- A number of 6,000 BTC have been pulled from exchanges by wary investors facing a bearish market mood.
- The chances of a recession have climbed, as Goldman Sachs revised the 12-month odds from 20% to 35%.
- Strategy Group maintains its purchasing streak, not deterred by the volatile market conditions.
Bitcoin’s value is sliding as President Trump mulls fresh tariffs against Russia. The crypto is lingering around $82,000, seeing its seventh successive day of lower lows.
The root of this bearish trend is Trump’s dissatisfaction with Russia’s slack progress on the Ukraine ceasefire deal, prompting him to threaten a 25% levy on Russian oil deliveries promptly.
Caught in a web of geopolitical upheaval, Bitcoin finds itself struggling amid an already precarious state, languishing for much of March and poised for what could be its weakest start to a year since 2018.
US futures have taken a nosedive, with DOW and S&P 500 futures both slumping, mirroring Bitcoin’s downward trend, which strengthens its connection to traditional financial arenas.
The overall economic landscape casts a shadow as core PCE data from last week pointed to unexpected inflation growth, and the Conference Board reported the lowest consumer trust rating in over a decade.
Goldman Sachs has increased its projection of a recession within a year from 20% to 35%, underlining weak growth trends and waning faith both in households and businesses, with administrative support for potential short-term economic strain.
The prospect of wider tariffs fuels market unease, as Trump mentions April 2 as "Liberation Day," when he plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs, targeting auto and potentially pharmaceutical sectors, each facing a fresh 25% tariff.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s technical outlook is bleak, with the MACD indicator showing no hopeful crossovers, supporting the bearish sentiment, while the RSI echoes this frailty.
Some analysts have tempered their Bitcoin price predictions. Cryptocurrency trader Arthur Hayes expects the Fed to potentially cause a market boom in April, whereas others exercise caution. Crypto Dad warns, “We’re constrained by a clear descending channel with prices circling a critical demand area.” a Bitcoin Experienced analyst Peter Brandt warns of a drastic decline to $65,635. Although this is a more radical forecast, a drop below $80,000 looms nearer in the short run.
Not everything is grim; institutional players are still snapping up Bitcoin. Strategy’s CEO Michael Saylor posted his well-known orange dots chart, captioned “Needs even more Orange,” signaling further acquisitions.
In addition, Marathon Digital has announced a $2 billion stock offering to fund new Bitcoin investments, with Metaplanet and Strategy continuously increasing their stakes despite the market’s instability. Bitcoin CryptoQuant’s data depicts an uptick in Bitcoin flowing to accumulation addresses over the span of the month, suggesting long-term investors are seizing the dip as a buying chance.
In a show of resilience against a bearish outlook, investors have withdrawn 6,000 BTC from exchanges, lessening supply and potentially helping to settle prices if selling pressure eases.
Federal Reserve’s imminent interest rate choices could sway Bitcoin’s future path as Chair Jerome Powell and Trump clash over the pace of rate adjustments; Trump insists on immediate reductions, arguing it would bolster his international trade tariff strategy.
As March draws to a close, Bitcoin's price movement becomes pivotal, with traders keenly observing whether it can uphold the $80,000 support or falter further amid escalating fears of Trump's tariffs.
Maisie, a seasoned reporter in Crypto & Financial spaces, has contributed her expertise to publications like Moneycheck.com, level-up-casino-app.com, and others, currently spearheading Blockfresh.com as Editor in Chief.
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