TLDR
- The bear pennant figure on the 4-hour chart implies a significant potential plummet to $0.464.
- Notably, large holders shed about 2 million ADA within the span of a week.
- The price took a hit at the $0.75-$0.76 resistance level and is hovering around the $0.7 support mark.
- Cardano's DeFi sector is noticeably struggling with a total value locked (TVL) of merely $360 million.
- Despite the negative signals, investors might find a tempting opportunity to buy in the $0.65-$0.68 bracket.
Cardano has recently endured a tumultuous ride in market value, experiencing an impressive surge of over 100% earlier in March, although gains were mostly wiped by sell-offs.
The price has been stuck in a lateral movement since, stirring uncertainty among investors about the cryptocurrency's next trajectory.
ADA Price
Technically speaking, Cardano has confirmed a bearish pennant breach on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a downward trend continuation.
The price attempt at crossing the $0.742 resistance was thwarted. It failed to reclaim the 50-period and 200-period EMAs, adding weight to the bearish forecast.
After ADA's sharp dip from $1.15 to $0.713, a bear pennant emerged, succeeded by a consolidation phase, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Nevertheless, the pattern broke downward, pushing ADA to $0.714, with technical projections pointing towards $0.464 by April.
$ADA Price
If the triangle bursts upward, ADA might head towards $0.90 š pic.twitter.com/I0fk1Msqsw
ā Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) March 15, 2025
The RSI index is currently at 44.06, signaling a prevailing bearish condition and implying further potential weakness.
Messariās on-chain analysis monitors the ADA supply in whale holdings, defined as wallets containing a minimum of 1,000,000 ADA.
From March 2 to March 9, the supply in these whale holdings reduced from 23.108 billion ADA to 23.106 billion ADA, a net outflow of around 2 million ADA in a single week.
This reduction indicates that major investors are offloading their assets. They might be expecting more price drops or reallocating funds into different investments.
Historically, such whale distributions often hint at coming sell-offs, possibly further ADA downturn unless new buying forces emerge.
Alongside technical challenges, Cardano also faces fundamental issues. Despite a research-centric approach and staking network, momentum has been tough to retain.
As of March 17, 2025, Cardano did not rank among the top 10 blockchains by total value locked (TVL), with its DeFi evaluations at about $360 million.
This figure starkly contrasts with Ethereum's $48.97 billion and Solana's $7.06 billion TVL, underscoring Cardano's struggles in capturing DeFi engagement.
Even with the 2021 Alonzo hard fork which enabled smart contracts, Cardano's growth rate has been sluggish, with daily transactions averaging 66,000 as of early March, compared to Ethereum's robust 1.1 million.
Broader economic dynamics also influence sentiment. The Federal Reserve's stance on halting rate cuts amid trade tensions has affected altcoins, sidelining Bitcoin.
However, certain indicators provide a glimmer of hope against continual losses. The Awesome Oscillator reflects minor bearish intensity, while the Accumulation/Distribution line has merely receded gains made in early March.
The market's Fear and Greed Index reads 30, depicting a fearful mindset that has colored the month of March.
For those scrutinizing risk vs. reward parameters, the $0.65-$0.68 vicinity appears to offer potential buying opportunities due to its correlation with range lows and showing recent price action support.
In the one-week liquidation scenario, the $0.68-$0.69 range emerges as a liquidity pocket, possibly drawing prices lower before a potential rebound.
It's important to recognize that Cardano's price trajectory will heavily depend on the trends affecting Bitcoin, which saw a 2.38% drop within seven hours, subsequently dragging ADA down by 4.68%.
