TLDR
- A top Ethereum whale associated with Genesis Trading has liquidated quite a sizable 40,000 ETH, totaling approximately $89.9 million, in the span of two short days.
- ETH's price has recently slumped to near $2,000, marking a 13% fall within the past week.
- The weekly RSI is hitting its lowest since May 2022, hinting at the possibility of further downward movement.
- There has been a noticeable spike in ETH exchange deposits by 60,000 ETH over the past two weeks, signaling growing selling pressure.
- Experts note similarities with how ETH behaved back in 2019, during times of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
The Ethereum landscape is currently dealing with increased stress, as prices hover at the pivotal $2,000 point amidst heightened selling from major stakeholders. Current data unveils that key market players are scaling back, while technical measures hint at potential further drops.
A well-known Ethereum whale, who received funds during the August 2024 Genesis Trading liquidation, has offloaded a considerable 40,000 ETH, worth about $89.9 million, via OTC trades in just a mere two days. Insights from Arkham Intelligence reveal this address initially held 114,500 ETH, valued around $358.19 million, during the liquidation phase but has since let go of nearly 30% of these assets.
This substantial offload aligns with Ethereum's price shedding over 13% in just a week, raising red flags about its immediate price stability, as further alarming signals emerge from the wider market.
According to CryptoQuant, the unrealized profit ratio for Ethereum whales has plunged to depths not seen since the last bear market cycle. This measure provides a snapshot of existing ETH holdings' profitability. Even though ETH's price now stands double those bear market levels, numerous whale portfolios reflect similar profit margins as earlier times.
Of particular concern is the cohort of whales clutching between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH, who now unveil a negative profit ratio, implying these significant holders are potentially experiencing losses on their stakes. This scenario may trigger additional sell-offs if the price trend remains downward.
Exchange deposit metrics bolster the weak market sentiment further. Recent blockchain data indicates that in the last fortnight, over 60,000 ETH has shifted to exchanges, generally a precursor to selling, as crypto assets require transfer to exchanges for conversion to different assets or fiat.
Ethereum's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 35.87, marking its lowest point pas since May 2022. Crypto analyst Jesse Olson flagged that during May 2022, when the RSI touched a similar trough, ETH subsequently cascaded another 60%. Should history repeat, Ethereum could potentially slide from $2,000 to roughly $800.
JUST IN: #Ethereum Ethereum’s RSI reading remains near its May 2022 nadir of 35.87, enduring a bear market phase, with price bottoms still elusive and subsequent drops of -60% emerging. pic.twitter.com/8DYFsNYrsn
— Jesse Olson (@JesseOlson) March 4, 2025
Besides trading anxieties, recent trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico imposed by US President Donald Trump have sparked recession fears. Based on Kalshi's data, there stands a 39% likelihood of an economic downturn in 2025. These broader economic factors have exerted added pressure on the overall crypto sector.
The total crypto market cap has shrunk from $3.7 trillion on December 14 down to $2.8 trillion now, visibly impacting leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which has decreased by 7.1%, and Ethereum, which took an 8.9% hit in a single day.
In contrast to Bitcoin, which experienced an impressive 2024 streak of new peaks, Ethereum has struggled after peaking at $4,878 in November 2021. Over the span of the past year, ETH fell by 41.6%, whereas Bitcoin advanced by 26%.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has highlighted similarities between today's ETH price performance and its past during the previous Federal Reserve's monetary tightening phase. Cowen posits Ethereum is echoing its 2019 patterns observed under the Fed's quantitative tightening policy.
In 2019, in a familiar monetary setting, ETH sculpted a wedge pattern and sustained this structure for nearly a year, where a momentary breakout above then led to a sharp drop beneath. Such pattern coincided with the Fed's policy pivots and marked critical junctures for the ETH/BTC ratio before ETH/USD soared, albeit followed by deeper dips.
According to Cowen, this cycle seems to follow a similar course, with the key difference being the prolonged span of the current quantitative tightening. Presently, the ETH ETH price has slipped from a wedge formation into its regression band. The analyst suggests favorable probabilities that the Fed might wrap up its quantitative tightening in the coming months, potentially alleviating the crypto market stress.
Despite bearish sentiment, a number of pundits maintain a hopeful outlook. A prominent crypto analyst points out that Ethereum is revisiting the 21-Day EMA on its 3-Month chart, a threshold ETH has historically never closed a session under. This either signals an imminent historic drop or signifies Ethereum nearing its bottom.
For everyone panicking about $ETH right now… #Ethereum Ethereum's test of the 21-Day EMA on the 3-Month chart shows promise. $ETH To date, ETH has never concluded a session beneath this technical line.
We might be on the verge of a historic event or close to Ethereum reaching the bottom point...
Be VERY CAREFUL Panic Selling! pic.twitter.com/aTi1fxpOP9
— Crypto – Now or Never (@CryptoNowNever) March 4, 2025
Technical Analysis
Recent analysis also found that ETH Ethereum is witnessing exchange balances plunge to a 9-year low. This reduced supply on exchanges could reinforce the cryptocurrency's scarcity narrative, potentially bolstering prices over the long haul.
Recent figures peg ETH at approximately $2,126, reflecting an 8.9% slide over a 24-hour stretch. Meanwhile, open interest has inched up by 2.62% to reach $19.23 billion, showcasing active trading maneuvers around the present price points.
Market watchers are carefully monitoring the vital $2,000 support benchmark. Should ETH slip below this psychological anchor, as per technical experts, it might fast-track a further descent to weaker thresholds.
Ethereum, for the time being, finds itself in a dicey spot where whale offloading, technical red flags, and macroeconomic woes are collectively adding to the gloomy sentiment. Nevertheless, historical trends and changes in exchange reserves hint at a possible market turnaround if broader conditions permit.
Currently, Ethereum's valuation showcases a 56% dip from its peak, placing the cryptocurrency in a challenging scenario as it traverses internal market currents alongside external economic forces.
