The previous year proved to be quite the spectacle for Litecoin, the popular offshoot of Bitcoin often dubbed the silver to BTC's gold. Interest in Litecoin swelled noticeably around its August 'halving' event, during which the block rewards for miners were halved.
The recurring halving event saw Litecoin's block rewards drop sharply from 25 LTC to 12.5 LTC, marking only the second such occurrence in the blockchain’s history. Analysts turned a keen eye to this change, eager to see its impact on metrics such as Litecoin's market price, capitalization, and hash rate.
What makes this moment particularly intriguing is that Litecoin's 2019 halving could illuminate the path ahead for Bitcoin's anticipated 2020 halving, acting as a potential forecast model.
Yet with the wisdom of hindsight, Bitcoin enthusiasts are hopeful for a distinct outcome. As 2019 wound down, Litecoin's price had fallen by 55 percent—from $94 to $42—post-halving, and its hash rate experienced a significant decline of about 70 percent.
With the decreased availability of LTC rewards, many miners opted to shutter their operations, redirecting their efforts towards more lucrative pursuits.
This episode now serves as an early study in the cyclical nature of halvings, providing material for analysis that blockchain economists will be delving into for years, regardless of where the cryptoeconomy navigates from here.
Yet Litecoin It's not as if Litecoin completely backtracked last year.
From January 2019 to the new year of 2020, Litecoin managed to ascend from $31.98 USD to $42.02, marking a yearly increase of 31 percent.
Reaching $42 may still leave LTC far off its remarkable December 2017 peak of $375, a time when its market cap soared to $19.5 billion. Nonetheless, the past year's 31 percent rise isn't too shabby for a venture many wrote off as essentially deceased by 2018.
So here we are in the present moment, pondering Litecoin's prospects for 2020. Its fate hinges on myriad factors, such as advancements in project development, like the integration of MimbleWimble through Extension Blocks.
Amidst all this, there’s no shortage of enthusiasts with strong opinions about Litecoin's trajectory over the upcoming year.
Other Price Predictions:
Latest Litecoin Price
Charlie Lee: No Clue!
Back in 2011, Charlie Lee, affectionately dubbed “Satoshi Lite,” launched the Litecoin network.
Lee remains instrumental within the Litecoin ecosystem, though he sparked controversy among stakeholders by liquidating all his LTC holdings at the market's height in December 2017 to remove any conflicts of interest.
As a result, Lee faces a constant barrage of inquiries regarding Litecoin's price. This likely increased once his LTC holdings were publicly known to be nil.
Much of Lee’s thoughts on the matter were succinctly shared with Anthony Pompliano on the Off the Chain podcast in 2019's top-rated episode. He was asked whether the crypto bear market was winding down, to which he replied:
“People frequently ask me if the market will rise or fall. If someone claims to know the answer, they’re bluffing. Nobody truly knows if the market will increase or decrease. Regarding the bear market, I’ve witnessed several ups and downs...sometimes it drops further when you think it's over, and sometimes it rebounds for real. Who knows? It's good we've seen some recovery, but it's wise not to overcommit. I caution against going all in.”
Lee's 'who knows' rationale is as pertinent today as it was then, and he presumably maintains that mindset as we venture into a new year. However, we now have more clarity on Lee’s direct vision for Litecoin in the coming months.
In November 2019, during an interview on the popular DataDash crypto channel, Lee expressed skepticism that a major influx of crypto users would occur in 2020 or 2021, foreshadowing that any significant adoption—along with associated price spikes for LTC—might still be some distance away. As he explained to DataDash's Nicholas Merten:
“It'll take more time. Bitcoin and Litecoin are still challenging for everyday use. User experience is crucial ... We’ll get to a point where cryptocurrency use is simple and streamlined, not unlike using a credit card where you don't ponder the backend complexities. That’s the future I foresee for BTC and LTC. Until then, they’re a solid hedge against conventional finance—a fresh asset class. Initial users will explore them as a hedge, an innovative asset class, before the masses adopt.”
Ryan Selkis: From Redundant to a Draft BTC Emulator
Ryan Selkis, from the Messari crypto building, stepped into the new year with his ...
This marked the second iteration of his 'Theses.' In the original 2018 edition, Selkis had humorously labeled LTC as 'useless,' considering it a transitional period heading into 2019. Crypto Theses for 2020 ” write-up.
In his revised 2020 column, in a similarly tongue-in-cheek manner, Selkis redefined LTC as a 'BTC betanet 4.'
Litecoin has traditionally been seen somewhat as Bitcoin's faster, open-lab equivalent. Selkis’s insight highlights a renewed optimism within the crypto community towards LTC, especially as efforts escalate to enhance its privacy features—potentially making it both faster and more private than BTC, albeit perhaps less secure. That trade-off is noteworthy in an era when many cryptocurrencies grapple with privacy challenges.
It's a given there’s no surefire way to determine crypto prices, or any prices, with certainty.
WalletInvestor: $30.5
However, using incomplete data, we can conduct imperfect analyses, delivering results that might either hit or miss.
That's where predictive crypto websites come into play. One of the favored platforms is...
...which employs Machine Learning (ML) to make educated guesses about where asset prices might land in the future. WalletInvestor “WalletInvestor’s forecasts rely on exchange rate fluctuations, trading volumes, previous market volatilities, among other economic indicators,” the creators elaborate on their site.
While WalletInvestor's predictive capabilities may be limited, it still provides specific forecasts that traders might use as a framework to gauge LTC’s potential direction.
Concerning LTC, WalletInvestor predicts a downward drift for 2020. As of the article's publication, it's forecasted that LTC might decline by about 39 percent throughout the year, from $50 to $30.58.
Envisioning Litecoin entering 2021 at $30 might not be far-fetched, though one would be wise to view this prediction’s specificity with skepticism.
Let’s dissect these two metrics as they stand concerning Litecoin.
The Dynamics of NVT and MVRV: Overvaluation Versus Undervaluation
Firstly, let's examine NVT, the 'Network Value to Transactions Ratio.' For a given cryptocurrency, it’s calculated by dividing its market capitalization by the USD equivalent of its daily transaction volume.
On his platform, a high NVT might hint that an asset's value exceeds its network's transmitted value:
As one of the NVT’s pioneers, Willy Woo, explains “A high NVT suggests the network's worth surpasses the value conveyed across its payment system. This could occur in times of marked growth or when investors speculate on substantial returns, or conversely, when prices swell to unsustainable levels.”
Now we turn our attention to the MVRV, derived by dividing a crypto’s market cap by its realized cap—calculated by summing the market value of all coins based on their last transaction price.
With that said, at the time of this article’s writing Litecoin’s adjusted NVT was 232 per {-{em}-}Coin Metrics. {-{/em}-}That’s pretty high, and suggests LTC might presently be overbought. For comparison, near LTC’s last local top back in June 2019, the crypto’s adjusted NVT bullishly went as low as 17.5.
Ultimately, a lower MVRV implies undervaluation, whereas a higher indicates overvaluation. As of January 12th, 2020, Litecoin’s MVRV was 0.7.
With oversold defined at 0.5 and overbought at 2.5, Litecoin currently lies closer to the former.
AMBCrypto analyst Akash Girimath indicated that technical trends presented LTC with a rally window, potentially pushing the crypto into the $50 to $100 range in foreseeable months:
Akash Girimath: If $63, Maybe as High as $100
In a recent post “The approaching rally targets $50. Once breached, LTC's next milestones are $63, then $78, with a pullback to $70. Additional targets, if momentum persists, range between $90 and $100.”
“The Litecoin Difficulty Ribbon is recovering. This suggests a bullish breakthrough from the bearish channel. LTC may spearhead BTC’s bullish breakout.” – Willy Woo
Willy Woo: LTC Breakout Maybe Near
{-{i}-}Woobull creator and crypto analyst Willy Woo shared this view on January 6th, 2020, while examining Litecoin's Difficulty Ribbon, which monitors miner selling pressure.{-{/i}-}
Woo indicated a decrease in selling pressure among Litecoin miners, paving the way for a more optimistic price trajectory for LTC.
Incidentally, this marked the most significant miner capitulation Litecoin has faced.
In a follow-up tweet on January 8th, Woo remarked that the 'LTCUSD price chart [seemed to be] shaking off its 6-month-long bear corridor.' pic.twitter.com/EnrTGmIXWS
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 6, 2020
Known as the 'Chief Litecoin Evangelist,' John Kim represents the Litecoin Foundation and is a prominent figure within the LTC community.
John Kim: $60 to $175
What's the buzz around Litecoin's prospects in 2020? Let's dive into what industry pundits are forecasting.
Planning your strategy for Litecoin? You might find it insightful to explore a variety of expert opinions about where its price might head over the coming year.
With so many voices weighing in, there's a wealth of opinions on where Litecoin's value might go in the next year.
$50 ✅
Now litecoin $60… https://t.co/j2MDrtV6Fv
— JohnKimChronicles (@johnkim77) January 11, 2020
2019 was a dynamic year for Litecoin. Dubbed the silver to Bitcoin's gold, this cryptocurrency piqued widespread interest around its August halving event, which sliced block rewards in half.
With the blockchain's rewards slashed from 25 LTC to 12.5 LTC, analysts were on high alert, monitoring how this would impact Litecoin's price, market capitalization, computing power, and beyond.
312% rise in price.
But why so much attention on Litecoin's halving? Beyond studying the network's general health, market watchers believed this event could shed light on Bitcoin's own forthcoming halving in early 2020.
312% rise from here will be $29,252. #StackSats In retrospect, those invested in Bitcoin are hoping for a different chain of events. The closing months of 2019 revealed a 55% drop in Litecoin's price from $94 to $42 following its recent halving, mirrored by a significant 70% decline in its computational power.
— JohnKimChronicles (@johnkim77) December 15, 2019
Facing diminished rewards and no significant price bump, many Litecoin miners opted to halt their operations in pursuit of more profitable ventures.This scenario has become a valuable early example for blockchain economists and is likely to serve as a reference point in studying the implications of halvings in the crypto realm.
It wasn't all downhill last year either.
From January 1st, 2019, to January 1st, 2020, Litecoin saw its price ascend from $31.98 to $42.02, marking a notable 31% annual increase.
That pursuit to hit $42 still places LTC quite a distance from its record high of $375 in December 2017 (achieving a market cap of $19.5 billion), but a 31% rise in 2019 isn't too shabby for a project labeled as 'dead' in 2018. https://t.co/wkfTQLYvJZ pic.twitter.com/zaJBBVcqaW
— JohnKimChronicles (@johnkim77) January 12, 2020
Conclusion
Fast forward to now. What does 2020 hold for Litecoin? A lot is riding on variables like the progress developers make in introducing MimbleWimble through Extension Blocks.
As it stands, the ecosystem is buzzing with opinions about what lies ahead for Litecoin over the next year.
From Futility to 'BTC Betanet 4': The Perspective of Ryan Selkis
Metrics like NVT and MVRV: Overvalued and Undervalued, respectively.
References
- https://open.spotify.com/episode/4N3VY3LehZREmZzQ4DiZoQ
- https://messari.io/pdf/crypto-theses-for-2020.pdf
- https://eng.ambcrypto.com/litecoin-takes-a-page-from-its-past-repeats-pre-2019-rally-pattern/
- https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/litecoin-price-analysis-a-rare-protocol-upgrade
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTc6m6hiqj4
- https://messari.io/
- https://twitter.com/johnkim77/status/1206261968677605376
- https://twitter.com/johnkim77/status/1216030766125277184
- https://twitter.com/johnkim77/status/1216481055840129031
- https://coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets=ltc_left=CapMVRVCur_zoom=1279411200000,1578787200000
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/litecoin-largest-miner-capitulation-great-news-for-bitcoin-analyst
- http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/
- https://walletinvestor.com/forecast/litecoin-prediction
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LTC-USD/history/
- litecoin.com
